Opinion

Our own kind of one-party state

With all the alliances, only time will tell what shape our democracy will take

February 04, 2004 Edition -1

Barney Mtombothi

President Thabo Mbeki is being pilloried for failing to announce a date for the elections although the parties are already on an election footing. The parties are all dressed up but do not know when to go.

It is Mbeki's right to name a date at a time of his choosing and it could be a date that is convenient for his party. It's all legit.

Only the American system has a fixed date for the elections.

As far as the British system is concerned - which forms the backdrop to our own - the prime minister calls an election when he feels circumstances suit him and his party. Unless, of course, he loses the confidence of parliament, in which case he's compelled to resign and go to the country for a new mandate. That is, if he's not sacked by his party.

Mbeki therefore is within his rights to keep everybody guessing. It's one of the perks of incumbency.

There's something odd or curious about this election. In keeping with campaigns, there's a lot of mud being thrown around already, but there are also a few mating dances. Which leave voters confused as to whether we are heading for competition or co-habitation.

It goes like this: The ANC is talking to the Inkatha Freedom Party, which is talking to the Democratic Alliance, which was in bed with the New National Party, which is now snoozing comfortably in the arms of the ANC.

The ANC is a gargantuan party that seems intent on gobbling up all the midgets. Only the DA is not on the menu for fear, I suppose, of a bout of indigestion. So it stays clear of it. But everybody else is fare game.

And the ANC, it seems, is taking a leaf from Sun Tzu's dictum: generally in war the best policy is to take a state intact. So they would rather not destroy their opponents, but take them voetstoots.

The fact of the matter is that there's very little to choose between all the parties, especially on economic policy. The campaign therefore ends up revolving around, not so much policies or platforms, but on sins of omission or commission.

The ANC was the only party which for decades had economic policies in conflict with the capitalist mainstream.

It seems a long time ago since Nelson Mandela stood on the step of the Cape Town city hall on the day of his release from imprisonment, to declare that nationalisation was the official policy of the ANC.

Mandela's speech, of course, was partly to reassure the comrades in Lusaka that he was still on their side, after a whispering campaign that in jail he had been speaking with the enemy without a mandate from the organisation. But the speech was also merely a re-affirmation of long-held ANC beliefs to take back the commanding heights of the economy.

Apartheid was seen as an off-shoot of capitalism. You could therefore not fight like with like, and so socialism became the guiding principle - although it had to find accommodation with a strong strand of African nationalism.

In exile succour from the Soviet Union meant the socialists became so dominant that the South African Communist Party became the tail that wagged the dog.

The collapse of the Soviet Union may have hastened the collapse of apartheid, but it also meant that socialism as an ideology lost its shine and its raison d'etre.

People in eastern Europe, at last relieved from its yoke, were voting with their feet either rising up against totalitarian regimes or making it to the West. So by the time Mandela made that speech in Cape Town, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan/ George Bush had already declared victory.

The ANC in power can be accused of many sins, but mismanagement of the economy cannot be one of them.

Mandela took a lot of stick from his supporters when he appointed Derek Keys as his first Finance Minister in 1994.

But that steadied the nerves of those still unconvinced that the tiger had changed its spots. It also paved the way for Trevor Manuel, who after an inauspicious start, has proved an inspired appointment. At the Reserve Bank, Tito Mboweni sees his role not as the protection of the value of the currency, as commanded by the constitution, but as taking care of inflation. Just like Chris Stals did.

So the comrades are managing the economy far better than the apartheid capitalists ever did. But in doing so - disarming and pleasing their critics - they have annoyed their supporters. The ANC sees eye to eye with most of the opposition parties on economic policies, but not with its key alliance partners, the SACP and Cosatu. Which is why it can swallow opposition parties without any fear of indigestion.

The party's toenadering with other parties, especially the NNP, has created strains within the alliance. Its alliance with the NNP seems to be motivated by a desire to win the coloured vote in the Western Cape.

It is the hostility of this constituency towards the ANC that handed the Western Cape to the NNP in 1994. The NNP's survival depends on a firm relationship with the ANC. That's an irony of ironies.

The party that fought so hard to keep the ANC not only out of power but out of the country is happy to snuggle up to it for survival. Not so happy is the IFP, which is coyly talking to the ANC but won't want anybody to know about it. IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi is now incensed because some ANC leaders have let the cat out of the bag.

It's obviously an embarrassment for him considering his scathing attack on the organisation at the launch of his party's manifesto. How - an ordinary man in the street can legitimately ask - can he attack people with whom he's seeking accommodation? The IFP's talks with the ANC must have alarmed the DA, their other allies.

These are two tricky balls to have up in the air at the same time. But then Buthelezi has been a trapeze artist for most of his life.

The ANC has over the years made no secret of the fact that they would want to see the IFP eventually in their fold. They are biding their time until Buthelezi leaves the stage.

Research also shows that supporters of the two parties hold similar views on most things. So there will not be any constipation there.

The ANC is already wooing chiefs, the bedrock of IFP support, and who hold sway in rural Kwazulu Natal. An ANC victory in the province in the coming elections will hasten the amalgamation of the two parties. But it won't be a merger of equal partners.

Events unfolding now will have a huge bearing on the direction our democracy takes - whether we have a full-blown democracy with many actors, or whether we end up with a one-party by default.

We are currently learning a lot of lessons from Malaysia. One of them, I fear, could be the route to a one-party state.