Opinion

US eyes China's Mideast ventures

November 28, 2006 Edition 1

The United States, long accustomed to predominance as a world superpower, is bumping up against rising China in nearly every corner of the globe these days, but no region is more sensitive than the Middle East.

For Washington, the Middle East has long been a vital sphere of influence based on a unique commitment to Israel, ties to Gulf States that have involved US troops in two recent wars, and a dependence on oil resources.

Now China is muscling into energy markets, investing in Iran as Washington seeks to sanction the Islamic republic for its nuclear programme, and it has held discussions on purchasing sensitive arms technology from Israel that Washington has sought to restrict.

Some experts even suggest China could supplant American democracy as a regional touchstone, with authoritarian regimes being more attracted by the Chinese model of high economic growth with little political reform.

To John McLaughlin, former CIA acting director, the "weakened" position of the US - bogged down in Iraq with its reputation in the Muslim world battered - presents China with both opportunity and temptation.

The temptation is for China to capitalise on this weakness and position itself as a counterweight to America, he told a recent conference organised by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think-tank that examined the "vital triangle" of China, the United States and the Middle East.

The opportunity is for Beijing to recognise that its interests largely coincide with Washington's and to work to co-ordinate agendas, said McLaughlin, now senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

As China extends its reach, some Americans see nefarious designs as Beijing challenges Washington for influence. Other views are more benign.

"I don't think the Chinese are setting out to compete with the US internationally, including in the Middle East," said Arnold Kanter, a former senior State Department official who does business in China.

Rather, "it's more a case of China - as an emerging global power - quite naturally developing interests that lead it to show up in places where it hasn't been before and where it has little experience," he said.

Kanter, who travels regularly to China, believes "any self-respecting world power" would act similarly. China and the US must learn to co-operate, he advised.

Although US political debates over Chinese policy have been relatively calm during President George Bush's term, many Americans harbour strong suspicions about Beijing's intentions.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a group set up by the US Congress, recently promoted the view that "the proliferation of missiles and missile-related technology - mainly to Iran - is the most persistent and dangerous aspect of Sino-Middle Eastern relations".

In a report, it faulted Beijing's reluctance to support US-led efforts to impose UN sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt sensitive nuclear activities which the West says are for weapons development and Tehran insists is for energy production.

The report also expressed alarm that an anti-ship cruise missile launched by the Hezbollah guerrilla group against Israel in the recent Lebanon war was a Chinese-designed "Silkworm".

China was not accused of directly transferring missiles to Hezbollah but the incident "illustrates that missile proliferation has inadvertent consequences", the report said.

Nevertheless, the administration prefers emphasising progress. "A few years ago our major concern with China was sale of whole missiles to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East," a senior US official told Reuters.

Now the concern focuses on "individual Chinese companies who by all appearances try to go around Chinese export controls", he said.

China's military build-up also stirs worries that as the country becomes more dependent on Middle Eastern oil, it may increase its naval presence between the Gulf and East Asia, thus competing with the US for sea control. But, for now, China's power projection capability remains limited.

In 2005, then-Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick challenged China to become a "stakeholder" in the international economic and security system, not just adhering to norms that foster world peace and stability, but helping lead the way.

This was based on the assumption that a US decision to view China as a negative force and aggressively build defences against it could prove a self-fulfiling prophecy. Better to embrace China at the leadership table.

A year later, the US-China review commission concluded that despite its rising power and wealth, China may not be willing or ready to play such a responsible role.

But the senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, insisted "no one expected China would become a stakeholder overnight".

US officials say China's hosting of the six-party North Korea nuclear talks and its increasing willingness to pressure Pyongyang to return to the bargaining table demonstrates Beijing's growth.

These officials see opportunities for common ground on the development of nuclear and other alternative energy sources, since the depletion of hydrocarbon resources imperils everyone, and on fostering Arab-Israeli peace, since China also requires regional stability in the Middle East so it can meet its energy needs.

But experts say a US-China strategic dialogue on these issues, launched by Zoellick, was stalled months ago when Zoellick took a private industry job. The official now heading the dialogue does not have the same expertise or time to devote to it. In Washington, "no one is in charge of US-China policy", said an expert who asked not to be identified. - Reuters

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