Probe into Lotto players' luck
16 February 2009, 08:17
As the worldwide economic depression sinks in, many South Africans are turning to Lady Luck to change their fortunes.
On February 7, the Lotto made 18 South Africans millionaires in one go. And with one's chances of winning the Lotto one in 13 983 816 or, in percentage terms, 0,0000072 percent, some were left frowning and a bit suspicious at this remarkable turn of events.
G Hargreaves, from Boskruin in Randburg, has vowed never to buy another Lotto ticket, believing trickery was afoot during the February 7 draw.
"This is unheard of in any other lottery. The chances of that happening are billions to one, and a commission of inquiry should be called to investigate," he complained.
Although the February 7 occurrence, with 18 people each being paid out R1 216 584, defied the odds, it has happened from time to time since the inception of the Lotto at the start of the decade.
In 2003, one Lotto draw had a whopping 33 jackpot winners.
Two years before, 19 people got lucky with their six-number choice and won the Lotto jackpot.
Number crunchers at the Wits School of Statistics and Actuarial Science weighed up the odds and came back with more decimals than the chances of ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema becoming president.
Gidani, the National Lottery operator, could not provide accurate figures for the number of lines played in the February 7 draw and could state only that 7,5-million tickets had been sold.
Sure enough, if each of those buying tickets played only one line, or up to five for that matter, the number of zeroes needed to point out their chances of winning would probably circumnavigate Idols judge Randall Abrahams' head - no mean feat.
"It is clear that, even if on average there are 10 lines sold per ticket, then the probability of getting 18 or more winners is negligible," said Paul Fatti, an associate professor at Wits.
"Only when there are 20 lines per ticket sold, on average, does the probability start exceeding 1 percent. When there are 25 lines per ticket, the probability starts becoming respectable," he said.
"So, either the average person who plays Lotto pays for quite a large number of lines; some individuals pay for an extremely large number of lines; somebody is monkeying with the system; or an extremely rare event has occurred - and I am very sceptical about the last two possibilities," said Fatti.
Gidani's Thembi Tulwana said the Lotto had produced 866 millionaires to date and in the two years that her company has been running the lottery, sales have increased by 27 percent, the number of tickets sold fluctuating between 4,5-million and 7,5-million, when there is a big jackpot.
When questions were raised after the 2001 windfall, the lottery operator at the time responded by pointing to the UK, where, in 1995, 133 people shared the jackpot.
Ultimately, the Lotto has proved once again that in a land of miracles and impossibilities becoming reality, anything can happen.
On February 7, the Lotto made 18 South Africans millionaires in one go. And with one's chances of winning the Lotto one in 13 983 816 or, in percentage terms, 0,0000072 percent, some were left frowning and a bit suspicious at this remarkable turn of events.
G Hargreaves, from Boskruin in Randburg, has vowed never to buy another Lotto ticket, believing trickery was afoot during the February 7 draw.
"This is unheard of in any other lottery. The chances of that happening are billions to one, and a commission of inquiry should be called to investigate," he complained.
Although the February 7 occurrence, with 18 people each being paid out R1 216 584, defied the odds, it has happened from time to time since the inception of the Lotto at the start of the decade.
In 2003, one Lotto draw had a whopping 33 jackpot winners.
Two years before, 19 people got lucky with their six-number choice and won the Lotto jackpot.
Number crunchers at the Wits School of Statistics and Actuarial Science weighed up the odds and came back with more decimals than the chances of ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema becoming president.
Gidani, the National Lottery operator, could not provide accurate figures for the number of lines played in the February 7 draw and could state only that 7,5-million tickets had been sold.
Sure enough, if each of those buying tickets played only one line, or up to five for that matter, the number of zeroes needed to point out their chances of winning would probably circumnavigate Idols judge Randall Abrahams' head - no mean feat.
"It is clear that, even if on average there are 10 lines sold per ticket, then the probability of getting 18 or more winners is negligible," said Paul Fatti, an associate professor at Wits.
"Only when there are 20 lines per ticket sold, on average, does the probability start exceeding 1 percent. When there are 25 lines per ticket, the probability starts becoming respectable," he said.
"So, either the average person who plays Lotto pays for quite a large number of lines; some individuals pay for an extremely large number of lines; somebody is monkeying with the system; or an extremely rare event has occurred - and I am very sceptical about the last two possibilities," said Fatti.
Gidani's Thembi Tulwana said the Lotto had produced 866 millionaires to date and in the two years that her company has been running the lottery, sales have increased by 27 percent, the number of tickets sold fluctuating between 4,5-million and 7,5-million, when there is a big jackpot.
When questions were raised after the 2001 windfall, the lottery operator at the time responded by pointing to the UK, where, in 1995, 133 people shared the jackpot.
Ultimately, the Lotto has proved once again that in a land of miracles and impossibilities becoming reality, anything can happen.
- This article was originally published on page 3 of The Star on February 16, 2009
Johannesburg
