What's next for Zimbabwe?

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By Fiona Forde

Senior members of Zimbabwe's security forces and Zanu-PF have met Robert Mugabe to persuade him not to contest a second round of elections while Simba Makoni paves the way for a government of national unity.

The ruling party on Wednesday lost control of parliament and it is expected that the official presidential results will force Mugabe into a run-off against Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), despite Tsvangirai's insistence that he won the lion's share of the vote - 50.3 percent, according to unofficial results.

Advisers to Makoni, the former finance minister, said negotiations were laying the groundwork for a government of national unity that would include not only the MDC, but also Zanu-PF. Makoni would take on a senior role with extended executive powers.

"Simba wants to be at the top," said Godfrey Chanetsa, Makoni's right-hand man and a former spokesperson for Mugabe.

"He didn't enter this campaign to play second fiddle. He came in to lead.

"This country doesn't need regime change now. It needs new leadership. And many people believe Simba is the man who can bring this country to the level that it should be."

But the likelihood of Tsvangirai handing over the reigns to Makoni, who won only a fraction of the vote, is slim.

"But this is not about numbers," Chanetsa said. "The eight percent is an illusion. Many people were afraid to vote for Simba, afraid of letting Zanu-PF in the back door and losing their chance of getting rid of Robert. But if they got rid of Robert, do you still think they would see Morgan as the right man for the job?"

Zimbabwe needed a transition, Chanetsa said.

"If (Tsvangirai) goes it alone he would be dealing with a very unstable structure for the next 10 years because the dismantling of the entrenched Zanu-PF structure will take a long time.

"But we can avoid conflict if we go the route of a government of national unity."

Makoni has the support of moderate Zanu-PF members.

"A lot of people have gone down," Chanetsa said, referring to many of the old guard who lost their parliamentary seats, among them Mugabe loyalists Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Public and Interactive Affairs Minister Chen Chimutengwende.

Chanetsa said many in the ruling party saw in Makoni a man who could help them bridge the divide between the Mugabe era and what followed next.

But it is not only ruling party members who will look to Makoni for security.

Retired army major and current Makoni adviser Kudzai Mbudzi said senior members of the country's security forces were also considering their futures as they encouraged Mugabe to step down, in his own interest and in theirs.

"The military runs the presidential campaign in this country, and they gave feedback to Mugabe that he was not to run.

"They don't trust Tsvangirai, but they also knew that Mugabe would be heavily defeated in a second round. And with Simba backing Morgan in the event of a run-off, they knew it was time for a compromise."

It is understood that in return for reasoning with the 84-year-old leader to bow out gracefully, the role players want an understanding that "the status quo and the present status of Zanu-PF would not be totally destroyed. And Simba can give them that assurance".

Under Zimbabwean law, 21 days must lapse after the results have been officially announced before a second round can take place. Makoni's men believe that provides an ideal window of opportunity for Mugabe to step down. "Stepping down is his only alternative to impending defeat," Mudzi's defeat.

In the event that he does, Chanetsa was confident that any future government will allow Mugabe to reside peacefully in the country he fought to liberate.

"He is no Charles Taylor. And there is no point in us looking back. We want to move on."

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• This article was originally published on page 1 of The Pretoria News on April 03, 2008